Australian Open Prediction: Nadal vs Medvedev

When: Sunday, January 30, 2022
Where: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia

The finals of the Australian Open have arrived. Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev are going to compete for the first Grand Slam title of the 2022 season. After two weeks of fantastic battles in Melbourne, we will finally determine who claims this trophy. Nadal is after the 21st Grand Slam title, the one who will break a tie between him, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic. Medvedev wants his second such trophy, which announces his entrance to the big stage and establishes the Russian as the replacement for the Big Three.

Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev Preview

Rafael Nadal

The Spanish legend has made it to the finals after six matches in which he lost four sets. We can argue about the way he won against Shapovalov in the quarterfinals, whether that was fair or not, but Nadal showed one thing there, and that was his ability to stay ice-cold in the most dramatic moments of the event, regardless of all other factors.

After surviving the storm against Shapo, he was against Matteo Berrettini. He would beat the Italian 3-1, experiencing a minor crisis in the third set, but eventually responding well and overcoming that challenging period.

Rafa’s first serve was once again around 70% of success, which is his average at AO. He made the difference against Berrettini on breakpoints. The Spaniard converted four of eight, which is a fantastic 50%, we say fantastic because Berrettini’s main weapon is strong serve.

Daniil Medvedev

The Russian managed to eliminate Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis, 3-1, and overcome, let’s say, very unprofessional behavior from the umpire chair. Tsitsipas’ father is known for coaching, and in this event, that was more than obvious, yet there were no warnings given to the Greek player.

Medvedev exploded but managed to get back on track and deliver a strong answer at 1-1, winning the next two sets. His main weapon was a very good service, as he had very good stats, taking 86% of points in his favor on first and 84% on the second serve.

In general, after calming down, Medvedev was a better player today, winning 123 points, opposite to Tsitsipas’ 97. Meanwhile, he restrained the rivals’ serve, winning 41 points when receiving.

Nadal vs Medvedev Head to Head

These two guys met four times in the past, and Nadal posted three wins. One of them was in the 2019 US Open finals after five sets. The first was at the Canadian Masters’ finals the same year, 6-3, 6-0. However, in the most recent clash at the ATP World Tour Finals, Medvedev won 2-1.

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Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

We will see one spectacle here, that is for sure. Medvedev is beaten, and you can tell that by all the baggage tapes on his body. Groins, left hamstring, etc. On the other side, we have Nadal, who had a much easier path to the finals, but who has 35 years. Our pick here would be Daniil because of his relentless serve and fantastic return. He is currently a better player than Rafa.

Our verdict: Medvedev

Nadal vs Medvedev Odds